The 2-year/10-year Bund spread closed the week at a positive 0.227%, a change from 0.224% last week. As a result, today’s simulation shows that the maximum probability of a return to negative spreads ...

Over the last week, Treasury yields were up 0.10% at 2 years and up 0.12% at 10 years. As a result, the current 2-year/10-year Treasury spread was up 0.02% at 0.16%. The maximum probability that the 2 ...

The U.S. economy grew at a healthy 3% annual rate as of the latest Q2 GDP report. However, as the Federal Reserve signals that interest rate cuts are likely, what are the risks? A 2024 recession is ...

An ominous measure that the Federal Reserve considers a near surefire recession signal again has reared its head in the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield passed below that of the 3-month note in ...

Leading economic indicators, such as the inverted yield curve, have warned that a recession is imminent. But these gauges are misleading amid strength in credit conditions, Ed Yardeni wrote on Monday.

In my 50-plus years of running money, I’ve noticed that the biggest market moves come from factors that have gone unnoticed – and right now, there’s a doozy lurking under the table. Amid all the ...

U.S. Treasury yields, especially the 2-year Treasury yield, are drawing attention again today. While some early reports suggested a sharp rise to 3.948%, most reliable sources including Reuters, ...

In macroeconomics, the yield curve is used to forecast the probability of a recession. When the curve becomes inverted, it means that short-term yields are higher than long-term yields which, up until ...

Although the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite have been seemingly unstoppable for more than two years, their phenomenal rally may soon be over. A time-tested forecasting ...